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Like he did in 1975 with actual data since 1965, moore compared actual data since 1975 against his replot figure c-1c ; . although, different than his previous comparison the data did not fit as well. one major factor was the timing of the inflection. he had predicted in 1975 that this would be delayed until about 1980 note dashed line in figure c-1b ; because of internal new product knowledge he had. but as has been previously reported, these products namely ccd memories ; did not materialize as planned. so the complexity curve changed slope immediately actually it had already begun as new product families from the early 1970s began to exhibit unique scaling patterns, see figure c-1c ; . finally, moore adjusted his 1975 replot by starting it earlier in 1975 ; and increasing the slope to fit the actual data for dram devices see figure c1d ; . he humbly called this chart, "what i calculated and should have said." the actual change in slope is slight but noticeable compare figures c-1c and c-1d ; , hence in a range closer to 18 months if not less ; .9 this was the chart that moore was describing to the author when he made the previous statement, "had i pushed the data harder . my projection would have been right on." this author took this to mean 18 months, again the accepted definition at the time. the actual number was not addressed with moore, neither of us reached for a protractor to check the slopes, it was approached in the spirit of learning from experience. basically, if the plot didn't fit the data you changed it to fit; it was no big deal. therefore, while it may seem to be nit-picking now, a debate over 18- vs. 24-months as the doubling rate was not considered a major issue then at least until after the article was published ; . considering all this the author logically concluded that a rate closer to the conventional 18-month rate really seemed to have some theoretical basis, thus the carefully chosen wording, "eighteen months seemed to be a reasonable rate." 10 the lesson in all this is that moore prepared and used these charts as illustrations supporting the general argument that semiconductor technology advanced at an exponential, and fairly predictable, rate. to be credible required engineering-like analysis. the problem was the data-- there was not enough or it was not firm. but moore was not writing a dissertation, he was trying to make a simple but powerful point to a broad community of not only engineers, but managers, investors and others involved in the young semiconductor industry. hence, moore used the data along with the simple forecasting technique of extrapolating the few data points forward with a ruler on semi-log paper to generate his famous "plot" in 1965. when validated 10 years later it was revised in much the same way, with some but certainly not complete engineering precision. another reexamination 20 years after this would call for further tweaking. and on it goes. despite the shortcomings in the charts they have been generally accepted, perhaps because they are simple and do, in fact, prove moore's point. while much discussion and debate have ensued over the analytical integrity of moore's charts including this author's own interpretation as described above ; they still stand. in some sense they are not subject to debate; they just are, just like moore's law. a simple plot becomes a law returning to the 1975 projection, independently and probably before his 1975 presentation at iedm, moore's plot was dubbed a law by someone other than him, perhaps by someone else at and winning poker.
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